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dezembro 14, 2004
Road to West remains rocky, even without Communists
Fonte: The Times
Road to West remains rocky, even without Communists
By Bronwen Maddox
ROMANIA is not Ukraine. The important point about the election result is how little difference the choice of president may make to Romania’s hopes of joining the European Union.
The new President will be as intent on Romania’s membership as his rival: that is the good news. But Romania’s problems remain enormous and the political power to overcome them is suspect: that is the great worry.The winner, Traian Basescu, and the loser, Adrian Nastase, are united in their fervour for Romania to join the EU as soon as possible. Neither has contemplated another plan.
Nor have many Romanians. True, Basescu had the support of the urban middle class, who are most passionately convinced of the advantages of joining Europe. He represents a break with the communist past. Nastase had more of the support of the small farmers who reckon — with good reason — that they have most to lose from EU regulations.
But there is no comparison with eastern Ukraine — a slab of the country with its back turned emphatically on the West, still brooding on the ties with former masters in Moscow. In the Romanian elections, the far Right got almost nowhere.
So the surprise victory of Basescu will produce no great change of policy on Europe. The pity is that nor may it produce much change to Romania’s paralysing problems.
The European Commission has taken an indulgent line towards Romania’s candidacy and its difficulty in meeting the standards of accession (even more so than towards its “twin” candidate Bulgaria).
The Commission has accepted Romania’s claim that it has a functioning “market economy”, which is an act of wilful generosity.
For all the anxiety in Bucharest, Romania’s membership has been widely regarded in Brussels as a done deal; a question of when, not if. A bit of slack has been built into the plans: there is provision for the 2007 target date for joining to slip by a year were Romania’s progress to be really inadequate.
But Brussels has paused, rightly, on the question of the corruption that pervades Romanian politics and business, and on the lack of a robust independent judiciary or protection for the media.
This month’s deadlines for satisfying the Commission on these points have quietly been “softened” to the middle of next year, on the ground that the elections were an unavoidable distraction.
But that is something of a pretext. There is now real concern at Romania’s lack of progress.
The question is whether Basescu can make any more headway than Nastase would have made. The victor’s Justice and Truth Alliance party is generally seen as less tainted with corruption than the Communists. But during the Opposition’s brief spell in power in the late 1990s it made few inroads into the problem.
Nor will it be easy for Basescu to form a stable coalition, despite helpful noises made by Nastase yesterday.
Perhaps Brussels will be so charmed by the symbolic break with communism that it will give Basescu more leeway than it would have given Nastase. Certainly, no one is saying the unthinkable — that the EU’s eastward expansion might suddenly come to a halt.
But there is a desire to see real progress from the new President. The anxiety in Bucharest about passing the tests is justified.
Publicado por esta às dezembro 14, 2004 02:47 PM