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outubro 29, 2004
Rome closed for a day as dignitaries flood in
Fonte: The Times
Rome closed for a day as dignitaries flood in
By Anthony Browne, Europe Correspondent
WHEN the European Union’s 25 heads of government gather in Rome today to sign Europe’s constitution, they will also be embarking upon a difficult journey to get the people of Europe to accept it.
The constitutional treaty will be signed in the Campidoglio, Rome’s spectacular town hall designed by Michelangelo, where the Treaty of Rome, which first set the EU in motion, was signed in 1957.
With all the showmanship that Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian Prime Minister, can muster, two lorryloads of flowers are being brought in, the fashion guru Valentino is designing the stewards’ uniforms, and Franco Zeffirelli, the film director, is responsible for TV coverage, to be beamed across the Continent.
The centre of Rome is being closed for security reasons for the first time in modern history, and one of the city’s airports is being closed to the public to cope with the flood of dignitaries. But after the theatricals are over and the champagne sipped, the heads of government must return home to get the constitution ratified by June 2006 at the latest.
Some are simply putting it to a vote in their parliaments, but up to 19 countries will hold a referendum; France, Belgium, Denmark, the Irish Republic, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Britain are certain to do so.
It will be the biggest popular consultation in the continent that gave the world democracy, probably involving more than half the EU’s citizens and more than half its countries. Few European governments had previously dared put new EU treaties to their people. “This is a seismic shift in EU politics. The EU is on the cusp of a direct democracy revolution,” wrote Daniel Keohane of the left-leaning pro-EU Centre for European Reform think-tank.
The outcome is far from clear. With Euroscepticism at record levels in many countries, opinion polls suggest that at least four — Britain, Poland, the Czech Republic and Denmark — could reject it, while in France and Ireland opinion is divided. The collapse this week of the incoming European commission can only fuel Euroscepticism further.
It would only take one country to say “no” to throw the whole project in doubt and send heads of government into a crisis summit. If several countries, or a founding country such as France, said “no”, it would throw the EU into its worst ever crisis. Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg Prime Minister, said this week: “A French ‘non’ would lead Europe into an absolute crisis where there would be no more European dream (or) ideal to nurture: it would be paralysis.”
The trouble is that the EU has a poor record of convincing voters. While countries, such as those in Eastern Europe, vote enthusiastically to join the EU, once people are safely in, they have a disconcerting habit of rejecting new treaties. The Danes voted against the Maastricht treaty, the Irish against the Nice treaty and Europhile France passed the Maastricht treaty by only 51 per cent.
The EU’s biggest project, the euro, was adopted by 12 nations without any of them having approved it in a referendum.
These referendums will be the first time a big EU project will be put to a popular vote among a majority of citizens.
Already national pro and anti campaign groups are forming and joining forces across national borders.
Britain’s “no” campaign has raised considerable money and support, while its opponent, Britain in Europe, complains that so far it has just a tenth of the money, although it has the support of Britain’s two outgoing European commissioners, Chris Patten and Neil Kinnock.Governments are also talking to each other to co-ordinate their campaigns.
The strategy is to hold referendums in the most Europhile nations first, hoping that this will influence more Eurosceptic nations. Britain, as Europe’s most Eurosceptic nation, is set to hold its referendum in March 2006, probably the last to do so.
The theory is that in most countries, people will be frightened to be the first to reject the treaty, a feeling unlikely to inhibit British voters, to whom Eurosceptics across the continent are looking to save them from the constitution.
Italy’s Government, which has rejected a referendum, has just announced that it wants to be the first to ratify the treaty. Franco Frattini, Italy’s Foreign Minister, said: “We seek to be the first to ratify it . . . at the latest it will be a Christmas present.”
A batch of Europhile countries — Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Portugal and Spain — will then hold referendums early next year, giving momentum to “yes” campaigns in the countries that follow. France is likely to be next after that, but the outcome is in doubt after the leading socialist politician Laurent Fabius came out against the constitution.
Britain, Poland, the Czech Republic and Denmark are set to hold their referendums right at the end, and all are sceptical. Getting national governments to agree the treaty’s wording took two years and was hard enough.
But getting the people to approve it is almost certain to be harder.
Publicado por esta às outubro 29, 2004 02:07 PM